The Burdern Comes Home
As the last US boots leave Iraq, the court of Baghdad stands empty. Yet the challenges have not disappeared; they have merely stepped out of hiding and taken their seats. Baghdad demanded the American exit in the name of sovereignty, and with no outsider left to blame, the exit has exposed Iraq’s sovereignty problem, instead of solving it. The state must now control armed groups that sit inside its security structure but aren’t completely under its command.
The final US troops left Erbil on 30th September, completing the two-stage withdrawal agreed in 2024, with main forces having left federal Iraq in 2025. Washington will still provide intelligence support and targeted training, but the Pentagon has made clear where the burden now sits: with the Iraqi government, for both ISIS remnants and Iran-aligned militias.
Trouble From Within
Iraq’s primary internal concern is the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella body of dozens of militias spanning Iran-aligned factions (like the Badr Organization and Kataib Hezbollah) and Sadrist Saraya al-Salam. Despite the 2016 law establishing the PMF as a part of the armed forces, harder-line groups, some designated as terrorist organizations (like the Kataib Hezbollah) or linked with political alliances like the Fatah, follow their own command structures. The picture is imbalance: Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib al-Imam Ali and Saraya al-Salam say their weapons are under state authority, while Kataib Hezbollah, Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada remain the main holdouts.
Several factions have been drawn into the US-Israel war on Iran, which fired on US facilities in Iraq too. Washington accises Katain Hezbollah of involvement in a drone attack on a Saudi Pipeline, even though the group denies it. The postponement of the deadline for bringing weapons under state control, from 30 September 2026 to June 2027, points to a state that is unable to command all its forces. Hours after the US departure, Kataib Hezbollah’s leader declared that “the resistance has won this round, and the victor is the one who imposes his conditions on the enemy”, along with denying an disarmament understanding with Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi.
Sovereignty on a Dollar Leash
Iraq’s oil revenues, about 90% of the state budget, remain in the custody of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. This is a contradiction: Washington reportedly threatened in 2020 to cut Iraq’s access to these funds, yet Iraqi officials conceded that the system provides financial stability and revenue protection, with an example being the US crackdown on illegal money laundering for Iran. This dollar-dependence gives Washington immense leverage over Iraq’s affairs, despite the military exit.
An ever-watchful Islamic State
Amidst this backdrop, the residual threat of ISIS still persists. Following withdrawal announcements, Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani noted increased movement amongst Islamic state sleeper cells, driven in his opinion, by “a boost in the morale of the fighters”. Iraqi security forces have also noted a suspected Islamic State cell suicide attack plan coinciding with the exit of the troops, highlighting the capability of the militant group to exploit security gaps, despite years of military setback. With US withdrawal from Syria’s Al-Tanf base in early 2026, the baton of protection has been passed on to Iraq and while Iraqi PM Zaidi reiterates that Iraq assumes full responsibility for its security and stability, the question remains: As a state without a monopoly on its own internal factions, is Iraq is truly capable of addressing an external threat?
The Ultimate Test
Now that the clamour for sovereignty has borne fruit, the time has come for the final test. Whether Iraq can get past these constraints and build from these shaky foundations will determine whether sovereignty or fragility will get the final word. As the world watches, the ball is now in Iraq’s court.
